Kiley McDaniel’s at Fangraphs had a post discussing all the time line for Moncada being eligible to sign with a team. Below is the link to his article plus scouting report that he has on Moncada.
Now that the Yankees and all teams can big on Moncada’s services you will see probably shortly he signs with a team. The Yankees should sign him with only not signing him if his costs goes above $60 million a year. First if you have forgotten Moncada is not Tomas or any of the recent Cuban players that have signed. He is 19 years old and subject to International Free Agent guidelines.
Those guidelines state that any team that signs for player above their amount gets penalized and because of the type of contract Moncada is going to sign almost all if not all of his bonus will be taxed at 100% which means if you sign him for $60 million you are really paying $120 million for the players.
Now back to the $60 million price tag I put on Moncada. I believe if he goes above this the Yankees should think hard about not signing him as he would cost $120 million. There is a real chance that he would bust but also keep in mind there is a chance that he would boom also. In Kiley’s piece he compares Moncada to Puig but who can play the infield.
This is what Puig had done in his first two seasons in the majors. 2013 he was a 4 FWar(Fangraphs version of War), 2014 he was 5.1FWar. This year each win above replacement is going for roughly seven to eight million per win. Lets look at just taking seven as the below number. That means that Puig has netted the Dodgers $63.7 million dollars in value. Puig signed a 42 million dollar seven year contract which means the Dodgers are just netting money right now from him in value. This year Steamer has Puig as a producing another 5.1 FWar season which would add another $35.7 in value meaning he would in three years generated almost $100 million in value.
If Moncada was doing this same results he would still have 3 years left to generate more value but also would be making more than the league minimum so he would be most costly. But if he would cost a lot that would mean he was producing and producing at a young age, something the Yankees haven’t had in a decade.
Another good example would be to look at Robinson Cano’s first six years in the majors. In those six years Cano produced 18 FWar which means he added value of $126 million. So the Yankees would lose a little in value as in his final three seasons I’m sure Moncada would make more than six million combined. Still most FA contracts are bad and you lose value in them typically.
So we know if Moncada produces just 18 FWar he will make up the contract plus the penalty. Another reason to sign him is the Yankees don’t get this opportunity to go after young elite talent. When they have had the chance they really have pounced. Examples just last year was Tanaka who is still very young and great. Another example that didn’t workout was Andrew Brackman. While he was a big bust most all publications had Brackman in the top five in his draft class. When he fell because of a bad elbow the Yankees pounced.
The pick was good with the information we had at the time and was the upside play which is why I believe Moncada will get serious offers from the Yankees and as long as he stays under $60 million they should sign him no matter the cost. Also the Yankees are out of signing good International Free Agents for the next two years because they blew every team out of the water by dropping $30 million in player costs and penalties. Go big or go home Yankees, just bring Moncada back home with you.